Unobserved Heterogeneity,Exit Rates,and Re‐Employment Wages

Exit rates from unemployment and re‐employment wages decline over a period of unemployment, after controlling for worker observable characteristics. We study the role of unobserved heterogeneity in an economy with asymmetric information and directed search. We show that the unique equilibrium is separating and that skilled workers have more job opportunities and higher wages. The composition of the unemployed varies with the duration of unemployment, so average exit rates and wages fall with time. The separating equilibrium relies on performance‐related pay schemes and the ability of firms to commit to renting an input that is complementary to worker skills.     

Sustainable banking in Latin American developing countries: Leading to (mutual) prosperity

This article examines multinational banks’ (MNBs) approaches to corporate social responsibility (CSR) in developing countries’ subsidiaries, particularly in Latin America. Building on in-depth case studies of two MNBs that are based in Europe and market leaders in Latin America, we analyze their CSR motivations and outcomes in host countries. We examine institutional environments by applying the national business system framework, and we suggest missing categories in its financial and educational dimensions. We theorize how institutional necessity determines MNBs' CSR in developing countries. Finally, we examine the CSR outcomes in Latin America, where banks’ responsible conduct has led to major improvements in educational levels and financial inclusion. These improvements alleviate poverty and enhance both country's social wellbeing and MNBs’ legitimacy, leading to mutual prosperity.     

Optimisation of water procurement decisions in an irrigation district: the role of option contracts

Water supply instability is one of the main risks faced by irrigation districts and farmers. Water procurement decision optimisation is essential in order to increase supply reliability and reduce costs. Water markets, such as spot purchases or water supply option contracts, can make this decision process more flexible. We analyse the potential interest in an option contract for an irrigation district that has access to several water sources. We apply a stochastic recursive mathematical programming model to simulate the water procurement decisions of an irrigation district's board operating in a context of water supply uncertainty in south‐eastern Spain. We analyse what role different option contracts could play in securing its water supply. Results suggest that the irrigation district would be willing to accept the proposed option contract in most cases subject to realistic values of the option contract financial terms. Of nine different water sources, desalination and the option contract are the main substitutes, where the use of either depends on the contract parameters. The contract premium and optioned volume are the variables that have a greater impact on the irrigation district's decisions.     

Regional Trade Agreements and the Pattern of Trade: A Networks Approach

This paper uses a complex network approach for the analysis trade effects from regional trade agreements on world trade flows. We use bilateral trade data to compute the network community structure for every year between 1970 and 2000. We compare this to null community structures that emerge from various models based on regional and geographical classifications, the implementation of RTA's and gravity models of trade. Our results show that RTA formation appears to have a cyclical pattern on the world trade network community structure. We document periods where bilateral trade flows and the structure of the world trade network are consistent with those predicted by formation of RTAs. These cycles occur in 1980–86 and 1990–96. At the same time, we document periods in which the pattern in the world trade network is not explained by RTA formation. Two periods, 1986–90 and 1997–2000, show a pattern of bilateral trade flows that moves away from the prediction that results from assuming RTA formation as the driving force in the determination of the world trade network structure. Factors contributing to the latter parts of the cycle during our sample period include formation of regional trade networks in East Asia that account for a significant portion of world trade but are not formalised by RTAs in force.     

A Note on US Worker Turnover

The length of new employment relationships is of first‐order importance for a number of questions in recent macro‐labour research. We investigate it using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation for the US from 1996 onwards, and document that above two‐fifths of newly employed workers fall into non‐employment within a year. We also find that the transition rate from employment to non‐employment within the first year varies significantly for different groups of the population, increases with the duration of the previous non‐employment spell, exhibits an acyclical or weakly procyclical pattern and a much higher volatility than the unemployment rate.     

Forecasting Heavy‐Tailed Densities with Positive Edgeworth and Gram‐Charlier Expansions*

This article presents a new semi‐nonparametric (SNP) density function, named Positive Edgeworth‐Sargan (PES). We show that this distribution belongs to the family of (positive) Gram‐Charlier (GC) densities and thus it preserves all the good properties of this type of SNP distributions but with a much simpler structure. The in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance of the PES is compared with symmetric and skewed GC distributions and other widely used densities in economics and finance. The results confirm the PES as a good alternative to approximate financial returns distribution, specially when skewness is not severe.     

Blinded by Growth

Everybody loves a growth story. But that does not make growth by itself a good investment thesis. Fast‐growing countries and their companies often produce low returns for investors, and slow‐growing ones sometimes produce high returns. In exploring this apparent paradox, this article argues that valuation plays a critical role. It matters not only how fast a country or company may grow, but also how much investors pay for that growth. Blinded by growth, investors often pay too much to participate in the prospective growth of both countries and companies; and as result, they earn low returns. This tendency to overpay for growth helps explain what the author describes as indisputable evidence that, over the long term, value investing beats growth investing. This article discusses growth from three different points of view. First, it looks into the relationship between general economic growth and equity returns. Second, it examines the relationship between corporate growth and equity returns. And finally, it compares value investing with growth investing.     

Environmental Motivations: The Pathway to Complete Environmental Management

The aim of this research is to ascertain whether a firm’s environmental motivations may help to predict how complete or incomplete its environmental management will be, understanding incomplete management to be that which neglects one or more of the three keys aspects of such management, namely, monitoring, action and results. We specifically posit that while motivations based on the search for legitimation lead to more incomplete styles of environmental management, competitive motivations entail a more complete management. The analyses conducted with a sample of 1,902 plants provide empirical evidence in favour of such reasoning. The contribution this research makes, therefore, is not restricted solely to showing the effect motivations have on the environmental performance of organisations, as it also introduces a new dimension of environmental management—the degree of completeness, which needs to be considered when understanding and evaluating this effect.     

Old wine in new bottles: IFRS adoption in NHS foundation trusts

UK public sector organizations, including NHS foundation trusts, have changed to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Treasury aims were ‘to bring benefits in consistency and comparability between financial reports in the global economy and to follow private sector best practice’. This comparative analysis of foundation trusts' financial statements under IFRS shows worse financial results and lower surpluses for the year, higher values of fixed (non-current) assets and more indebtedness than under UK GAAP. Implications of the new accounting regime on comparability and transparency of NHS organizations are discussed—some wine shows improvement, while other wine looks worse in the new bottles.     

Valuation in Emerging Markets: A Simulation Approach

Most of the foundations of valuation theory have been designed for use in developed markets. Because of the greater, and in some cases different, risks associated with emerging markets (although recent experience might suggest otherwise), investors and corporate managers are often uncomfortable using traditional methods. The typical way of capturing emerging-market risks is to increase the discount rate in the standard valuation model. But, as the authors argue, such adjustments have the effect of undermining some of the basic assumptions of the CAPM-based discounted cash flow model. The standard theory of capital budgeting suggests that estimates of unconditional expected cash flows should be discounted at CAPM discount rates (or betas) that reflect only “systematic,” or “nondiversifiable,” market-wide risks. In practice, however, analysts tend to take what are really estimates of “conditional” expected cash flows—that is, conditional on the firm or its country avoiding a crisis—and discount them at higher rates that reflect not only systematic risks, but diversifiable risks that typically involve a higher probability of crisis-driven costs of default. But there is almost no basis in theory for the size of the increases in discount rates. In this article, the authors propose that analysts in emerging markets avoid this discount rate problem by using simulation techniques to capture emerging-market risks in their estimates of unconditional expected cash flows—in other words, estimates that directly incorporate the possibility of an emerging-market crisis and its consequences. Having produced such estimates, analysts can then discount them using the standard Global CAPM.